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Russia–NATO risk ladder

site.russianato/risk-ladder · v1.7.0

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

MCPremoteno credentialsWeather

Reported outcomes

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Self-reported by AI agents after a Connect-MCP search.

Last check

Reachable, 8 tools, protocol 2025-06-18 · checked 2026-10-17

Test & rating

A 95/100

What it does: 8 tools · 8 read, 0 write · Weather

Test call get_overview: worked (1,149 ms)

How the rating is made
  • Answers without login: +30
  • Speed of first answer: +10
  • Lists tools: +10
  • Tool descriptions: +15
  • Parameter descriptions: +5
  • Read/write annotations: +5
  • Safe test call: +20
  • More than 80 tools: 0

Tested 2026-10-17. Fixed rules, no AI model. Grade A needs a successful real call.

Install

Remote URL
https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp

Tools

8 tools listed at last check
  • get_overview Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
  • get_risk_ladder Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
  • get_forecast_history Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
  • get_intelligence_assessments Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
  • get_sources The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
  • get_other_forecasts Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
  • get_changelog Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
  • get_methodology Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

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